its over, page-70

For me Pisces the biggest mistake made by many here was not reading the macro economic situation better.

Yes CCC have burnt money like there's no tomorrow and should have been much more controlled in what they were doing with their debt situation.Its obvious to me they have been passing debt from one facility to the other if the lack of closing deals with the cash they had is anything to go by.Much like people with multiple credit cards/debt facilities behave until one gets to the end of the line and either cant find another lender or have to pay very high interest which they cant afford.

But imo this has only contributed to the curent situation.

Was the RBI thermal price ever going to stay above $100/t?
Not likely now with global growth flat to negative and demand for Chinese exports plummeting which has led to much slower Chinese/Indian growth.The Chinese domestic economy will never be able to totally insulate their grwoth rate from the PIIGS and US problems.

What would have been motivating for the market(and at least stem the downward sp spiral) would have been the company tightening its belt considerably by whatever means possible,getting rid of the UK listing comes to mind at several hundred thousand a year,consolidating the ownership such as completing the Mashala deal to maximise returns,paring down upper level staff numbers and perhaps doing a better deal with SIOC in stumping up Pen project finance.But then would have they done this knowing current rate of costs???Probably not.

In terms of over enthusiasm Pisces imo it directly related to the POSSIBLE margins this company would have made IF the RBI price stayed well above $100/t and this was always going to be directly related to global macro economics.Seems some of us,including yours truly,didnt learn from 2008.

A while ago I commented that the business model in gathering these fractured BEE asstes was a good one but that it relied on good thermal export margins which are obviously no longer there.What wasnt also transparently reported was just how marginal the producing Mashala assets were.

As far as the hype goes I'll refer back to my previous post comment and the overtly positive company annmnts that have not been fulfilled upon and which now APPEAR to have a thinly veiled promotional quality about them.As mentioned I will now only be following companies that annc complete deals to market or complete anncd potential deals with very short time frames.

CCC's only saviour now has to be Penumbra and even that still carries some doubt given what those macro conditions might do in the next few years.Its quite possible we will see flat conditions for a minimum 2 years and some financial analysts are now saying that might extend to 5-7 years if the Fed and central banks continue with their QE programs which almost seems a given.

Unfortunately the thread title is somewhat apt in that they now have to service substantial interest on debt and not just corporate deal debt.It seems they have run out of options in servicing this debt and operational costs unless Turvey can sell some assets to cover their behinds until Penumbra is ramped to full production.

Whatever the case its going to be a close call and even then the big question for me would be will Penumbra cover their ongoing exhorbitant costs?

d.