Sydney - Thursday - September 6: (RWE Aust Business News) -
Whilte the unemployment rate inexplicably fell to 5.1 per cent in August
it was associated with a 0.2ppt decline in the participation rate to
65pc, its lowest level since late 2006, according to an economist.
"We find it very difficult to believe that the unemployment rate
declined in the month given that job ads and measures of hiring
intentions have trended lower over the past six months, and the number of
unemployment benefit recipients has trended higher," ANZ senior
economist, Justin Fabo, said.
"The labour force data have been very volatile in recent months.
"For these reasons we feel strongly that the unemployment rate
will trend higher in coming months.
"Given recent signs that the Chinese economy is weaker than
expected and the weakness in iron ore and, to a lesser extent, coal
prices, the backward-looking nature of today's labour force data and
yesterday's GDP data mean they have reduced importance for monetary
policy deliberations.
"Our view is that the official cash rate will be lowered by
November and again in the first quarter of 2013."
Reuters.
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