Rorkes, I disagree. I have held this stock long enough to learn firsthand how the decline in REO basket prices has resulted in a string of consecutive downgrades in earningsn estimates. I think a lot of people were hoping for TOL issuance to overcome the drop in price associated with basket price deterioration, but TOL issuance proved otherwise. Although I am somewhat jaded by having sold the day before the TOL based on preceptions that TOL wasn't going to come until after elections, there is still a valid point here: A great deal of selling in the last few days is investors exiting long positions because they realize that, given how far basket prices have declined in the last year, the estimates of net profits for LAMP production of LREEs is not that high, and a further drop in basket prices cannot be ruled out.
Keep in mind Lynas will not make $52/kg for selling their product straight out of the shipping docks from the LAMP: Cerium and lanthanum may possibly be unprofitable at this moment in time based on current basket prices, and the minor percent composition REOs that LAMP will produce, although they command a much higher price, they will have to be shipped out to a third party for separation before they can be sold for the quoted current price, which is based on complete separation.
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