far a huge buy now, sitting pretty, derisked, page-50

Don't forget that the 'nearology' applies to PCL as well.

Can't possibly expect FAR to see the same % gain as PCL on this news, as every $1 improvement to FAR MC on the news will be an equivalent 67c improvement to PCL market cap based on the fact they own %40/%60 = 67% as much of L6 as we do.

Of course, the main value of the find is increasing the value of L8, which we have no stake in. Yesterday PCL rose 10.5c, or about $120M. If it were all attributed to L8, that would put the value of increase to L8 as $800M

It's not straightforward to figure out in $ terms what the find means to each of the adjacent blocks. Could do something like considering FAR went up $17.5M, then PCL would be about $11.5M on an L6 basis, meaning the L8 increase would be more like $700M. But then there is stake in L9, L10A and L10B to consider too. Could do a big set of simultaneous equations looking at how much the other nearby operators have increased, their % hold in each block and do a least squares solution but I don't have time for that right now.

Bottom line is hold on! The market will sort it all out eventually.