closing dump, page-9

oligarch - your logic is sound, yet you are only considering the risk and ignoring the reward.

The well is only US$25 million, unless successful. That is a fair margin of safety, even with Thailand drilling coming up.

The problem is that the market views Heron as a 50:50 and Gurame the same, suggesting, that there is 25% chance that both projects will be duds, and a 50% chance that at least one of the project will be a dud.

The technical work done would suggest perhaps a 70% CoS for both projects, which would mean there is a 91% chance that at least one of the projects will be a success, underwriting MEO entire MC, several times over.

MEO are backing themselves, and I like it. They figure in the next 2-6 weeks they are sure to get some good news, push the share price to 40 -50c, allowing them to put away say 50 million shares at 40c to raise $20 million to get them by until Eni commit to another Heron well, Blackwood and TS!

The only problem is, despite MEO's hard work, the market just doesn't get it, or is sceptical. It will sort itself out in the next few weeks.