Management and Strategy are everything.. not saying you can't be flexible as new information becomes available.. but in an ideal world a strategy/schedule needs to be agreed upon and adhered to, not changed on a whim. Management in this company are good; ATP I know and respect, Mottram seems to be of a good calibre too. Woody is good at what he knows and does, however, it's the irreconcilable conflict of business philosophy between ATP and Woody which REALLY worries me. ATP is a production man (to the core); Woody is an entrepreneur.. a pumper and dumper of the highest order.. Mottram will probably be on the fence.
The fact that we've drifted from a palpaple production schedule a year ago to tenement acquisitions and more speculative target drill programs (and for an ever widening suite of minerals) is a worry. It will also be a worry to ATP who must be seeing 'his' coppermine dream drifting into the ether as the company looks again to be reverting to exploration. Exploration companies which don't produce are inevitably taken over or go broke.. Just because Xstrata and Vale are on board doesn't make them any less of a threat.. They aren't there to 'protect' AVB.. no.. the Foxes are now well and truly in the Hen House. We might like to see them sitting there as 'friends' but the reality is they will see us as their unnofficial exploration arms.. If we DO hit the motherload or at least profitable grades I would seriously expect them to insist on production and offtake agreements that suit them and effectively take over when we appear to be doing well and flexing muscles.. Woody will be aware of this and can't wait; ATP will want AVB to remain independant: he wants to run and grow the company, not to sell out and become an employee of a faceless monolith: he's been there before.. ATP will also know that a producing junior attracts a premium in T/O negotiations (easier to defend against a T/O bid if producing), so, to me, his sharebuying is HIGHLY significant, as is the direction his feet point in: at the moment he offloads or makes for the exit so will I.
GLTA
BT
AVB Price at posting:
7.3¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
