Thanks for the clarification. You're talking about the cashflow characteristics at the US portfolio level. I interpreted your previous comment as suggesting the lack of new projects will influence the flip timing for individual US projects. i.e. we agree that as the projects slip into phase 2, phase 1 cash flows will dry up, but it's NOT the case that because there are no/limited phase 1 cash flows that there will be a consequential delay entering phase 3 (though this may be delayed by other factors).
On the new projects front, I agree that raising new capital will be hard, but it'd doable. Look at Woodlawn.
If by the "inevitable" you mean bankruptcy, I think they have a fighting chance to avoid it. Above I suggested a few numbers to illustrate this. Even if I am wrong on the ability to pay down debt at A$50m p.a., at it only reaches, lets say A$25m, then they'd only fall foul of covenants slightly. Whilst not ideal this could be mitigated by the sale of a few Aus assets to bridge the US cash trough.
Again, in all this, I'm not saying it's easy or certain, but I think to call them as breaching covenants and going under at this stage is premature. There are things they can do to manage around the challenges.
IFN Price at posting:
26.5¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
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