mongolian power struggle, page-20

take it easy guys. I do not believe RIO would fall or rise those levels you guys have discussed for short-term.

My unbiased opinion is RIO actually have upside potential rather than downside.

1) IO prices have been tested 100 level and they have been holding 3-digit line. Long as that holds, RIO won't be ugly.
2) Chinese govt has been choreographing the leadership transition and the only reason they have been trying so hard not to stimulate big time is to promote the image of the new leader. Current leader slows down the over-speed economy and new one will take it to next level. See? The script is written.
3) RIO has not been postponing any IO production expansion and in fact they're more aggressive than ever. And that's impressive. Confidence from Albanese and Walsh is quite a contrast from shaky miners like FMG and AGO.
4) Spain will have request a bailout and markets will rally. I know this is bs but market WILL rally (at least a couple of nights :) I don't see any downside risk from Eurozone at the moment.
5) Obama will win. Romney is just wasting his loads of money. There will be debates in October and Obama will convince the market that he will win. No downside risk from that.

Ok. let's talk about possible downside risks.
Negate all the above upside risks and give some probabilities. If you're unbiased, you'll see the figures are quite low.

Short-term, RIO can fall, may be to 50.50 again, but it will rise to the Christmas. That's my 2cents.