short term trading week beginning - 1st oct

Weekly Fundamental and Technical Analysis Prospects - Week Starting 1st Oct 2012 (No. 35)

Here’s this week’s FA and TA List. The newer items first and those carried forward from last week towards back of list (some of the items from last week have a time horizon of more that one week).
Again, I have taken the liberty of adding some info where it was unclear or fixing typos where I came across them. Hope no one minds. I have reduced the list to 10 or so items again. If you would like me to change your item then please let me know and I will update and I will re-issue. Will open for submissions on next week’s list this Friday after market close. All market caps are undiluted and were correct at time of posting (Note: Max time for any entry on list will be 4 weeks after which time it will be removed).

Important Note: Remember just because it appears on the list does not necessarily mean it will rise in price... it may actually fall or do nothing. So it is critical that you perform detailed research on each stock first and make your own mind up to whether invest or not. I suggest you run a stop-loss at all times when trading/investing. How tight your stops are depends on your threshold to risk and financial pain. Lastly I take no responsibility for the accuracy of the information provided as I do not have the time to research all the facts that have been provided. Best of Luck.!


Weekly Fundamental Analysis Prospects
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PYM- Oil/Gas in Texas US, Pryme has a 40% working interest in 25,791 acres (10,316 net acres) in the Turner Bayou Project and is initially targeting development of the Austin Chalk horizon. Up to 30 gross Austin Chalk well locations are possible within the project area based on a 640 acre well spacing. In addition to the Austin Chalk potential of the Turner Bayou project area, exploration drilling within Pryme’s Turner Bayou leases has intersected the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale which is analogous to the prolific Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas. Several exploration and production companies operating in proximity to Turner Bayou have achieved encouraging results from tests of this formation. Company will sign a term sheet on Monday for $100 million. Drilling to commence in proven field. IP of between 1000 to 3000 bopd expected for each well. If that didn't get you in nothing will, see thread for further analysis (Mcap: $19.78m) Editors Pick
[Company to sign a $100m Term sheet on Monday drill to start soon.]
Spotted by: V8 (No Position Held)

MKE - Oil and Gas exploration and production in western Canada, which is focused on the light oil and liquids rich natural gas area of the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin in west central Alberta. Company has a large Acreage Position for Light oil & Liquids rich plays and a very large resource potential. Early results continue to yield attractive economics and there is scope for significant production growth 35 000 acres of the most prospective resource play in the world, JV in place with Warburg Pincus one of the largest private equity firms in the world, free carried drill to commence any day (Mcap: $14.3m)
[Spud of new well imminent] Editors Pick
Spotted by: V8 (No Position Held)

ABN - AdEffective is an online advertising business that provides Publishers and Publisher Networks with enhanced advertising exposure to increase their rate of return on advertising. The company operates two advertising divisions, Footar which focuses on the monetization of display advertising and AdFeed which focuses on the monetization of search and contextual advertising feeds. Combined, the Footar and AdFeed businesses deliver over 900 Million* ad impressions per month. Has been a bit troubled last couple of years but restructured and turned a corner over the course of 2012. Annual report just released and if you dig into it you can see they are running at profit now with rapidly growing revenue. Based on P/E 8 should be valued between $6.4m and $13.6m depending on assumption. See my thread on ABN for details. The wildcard is that Dominic Carosa a well known dotcom guru has been buying large chunks on market, he's up to 13% so far and trading action suggests he's still going. He's got a habit of going out of his way to give companies a kick-start after he invests in them. (Mcap: $3.3m) Editors Pick
[Rapidly growing revenue key investor taking position]
Spotted by: Shadders (No Position Held)

LOM - Owns 40% share of World class Diamond tenements in Angola and surrounded by the companies who are the big players in world diamonds such as De Beers. Recently found a high grade 131 Carat diamond in Trench sampling. Currently just start Bauer drill (Bulk) testing 61 known or suspected kimberlites identified by a world class diamond specialist. In Quarterly company stated that "Discussions with potential strategic investors at an advanced stage". They are also doing a detailed review of all magnetic anomalies near the 131.4 carat diamond discovery and new aeromagnetic survey expected to increase the number of priority kimberlitic targets to be drilled at Lulo (Mcap: $35.6m)
[Expecting drill results from initial Kimberlite Pipes drill testing]
Spotted by: Freehold (Position Held)

MZI - (Zircon and Leuxcone Australia) Last week the company announced a repayment of it's loan to Doral. "MZI has repaid the US $4.5m it borrowed from established mineral sands producer Doral." Doral now has 90 days to exercise its option to acquire 250 million shares in MZI at 2.3c. Option is part of strategic alliance which includes agreement to process Keysbrook concentrates at Doral’s WA plant. The event that I am banking on for a major re-rate is the Keysbrook Feasibility Study which is nearing completion. MZI is on track to become a major mineral sands producer, with the Keysbrook Feasibility Study due to be released over the next few weeks. From all accounts, management have stated that the FS will show an extremely lucrative project. (Mcap: $52.6m)
[Keysbrook Positive feasibility Study expected]
Spotted by: DLM696 (Position Held)

OXX - The Octanex group of companies is involved in the exploration for oil and gas in the offshore waters of Australia and New Zealand. Fully carried with a 25% interest by Santos through a 3D seismic programme and a well in the highly prospective WA-323-P and WA-330-P permits that contain the Winchester Prospect; Significant gas/condensate potential at the Winchester Prospect and drilling expected in 2012; Fully carried with a 35% interest by OMV NZ Ltd through a 3D survey in PEP 51906 in New Zealand. If OMV commits to a well by November 2012, Octanex to be carried through that well. Shell is spudding a well in WA any day, they are free carried for 1 percent. Two other upcoming wells are free carried for normal farm out percentages . These are large targets with majors on board . Run by G Albers ... He holds most of the shares in fact. Has to be the only speccy to ever pay a divvy ! Probably too early but this is hard to get set in so i will call it now . (Mcap: $30.75m)
[Upcoming Spud of Well]
Spotted by: J8 (No Position Held)

EIO - Iron Ore Nigeria, Maiden JORC compliant mineral resource at Agbaja Project of 488 million tonnes with an in-situ iron grade of 42.7% classified as Inferred. The resource estimate represents only: - 13.9km2 or approximately 15% of the prospective areas within Exploration Licences 12124 and 8886, which are collectively known as the Agbaja Project, and - approximately 9.2% of the Company’s 151km2 landholding prospective for channel iron deposits. Assay results for Zone A, Fe 35.4%, low phosphorous values and elevated titanium dioxide values Zone B, Fe 45.7%, and an indirect relationship with Zone A for phosphorous and titanium dioxide. (Mcap: $51m)
[Share price rerate after significant Jorc Upgrade]
Spotted by: Shikapat (Position Held)

RTR - Rumble Resources Limited is an Australian based exploration company, officially admitted to the ASX on 1st July 2011. Rumble was established with the aim of adding significant value to its current gold and base metal assets and will continue to look at mineral acquisition opportunities both in Australia and abroad. Despite a lull and a CR the stock sits tight. First pass drilling, not announced yet , must be completed by 15/10 . An announcement of the rig onsite and drilling is a certainty this week , very early . Paulsen Sth and Beadell have more IP target information now and the new director just appointed was instrumental in Paulsen's original discovery .A vote of confidence from him and a great geo on board (Mcap: $8.44m)
[Upcoming drill program]
Spotted by: J8 (No Position Held)

MTH - Mithril Resources Ltd is focused on the discovery and development of base metal deposits primarily copper in WA and the NT. Possible Iron Oxide Copper Gold economic discovery in NT in newly identified tract for Olympic Dam, Prominent Hill, Carrapateena type deposits. Imminent drilling El Gordo & Minie Me etc should raise interest. MTH is a smart exploration company with regard to new geological thinking and target generation. Recent presentation on web elucidating. IOCG deposits are $bn elephants and the hint that MTH have one could see big increases in share price (Mcap: $10.98m)
[Drill program imminent]
Spotted by: Blue_Sky_Havest ( Position Held)

GCR - Explorer with a copper-gold focus. Its major project is the Copper Hill copper-gold deposit at the Molong Project in central NSW. GCR also has many other high quality projects across Australia as well as prospective joint ventures, funded and managed by GCR’s partners. The Copper Hill (Constrained) Resource, (Lewis Mineral Resource Consulting, ASX announcement 13 Dec. 2011) of 153 million tonnes, at a cut-off grade of 0.2% copper and with average grades of 0.32% copper and 0.27g/t gold, contains 493,200 tonnes of copper and 1.33 million ounces of gold within a constrained, optimised open pit. Future drilling efforts will be aimed at discovering new zones beyond the current Resource. Metallurgical studies have been completed achieving copper and gold recoveries of 83% for copper and 70% for gold and producing a 24% copper concentrate containing 24g/t gold. HeliTEM completed in exploration licences around Mallee Bull discovery (PEX). GCR say HeliTEM gave conductor targets. HeliTEM can penetrate 600 metres so depth of Mallee Bull not so much an issue and these deposits often come in clusters. Announcement of more detail and quality of targets and proposals for drilling should increase share price (Mcap: $9.53m)
[Geophys is giving conductor targets]
Spotted by: Blue_Sky_Havest ( Position Held)

AOP - Gold explorer, Rebecca Project The project is located 150km east of Kalgoorlie in the Pinjin area of the southern Laverton Tectonic Zone, Western Australia Outstanding Intercept of 42m @ 7.75g/t gold at Rebecca Project in August 2012 says it all for me. AOP probably has a future viable gold mine and the market will eventually catch on. Follow-up drilling has given 22m @ 2.80g/t Au and geos will now tease out structure. SIR wannabe MEU rise and collapse (from 4c 'discretionary' placement by Directors into 20c market) has caused cynicism to new discoveries like AOP. This suspicion will ware off for AOP as a new comer as the gold intercept stands on its own feet regardless that AOP was restructured from a previously a failed dot com or similar. Have African prospects as well (Mcap: $9.16m)
[Recent positive Drill Results expect to drive investor interest]
Spotted by: Blue_Sky_Havest ( Position Held)

ACN - Oil and Gas in Australia, Cooper Basin oil producer/operator about to embark on transformational exploration and appraisal program. Large portfolio of acreage with multiple play types. Company is reworking 5 wells in Flax field with up to date technology with view to increase flows and reserves. Also plan to drill new well to confirm/disprove the theory Flax and Juniper fields connected. If positive this will prove old Innaminka`s claim of largest onshore oil field in Aus. Co. also has virgin undrilled leases in Darling Basin. This could well be a multi bagger. Excellent management with a detailed plan . (Mcap: $90.5m)
[Reworking old wells with new technology]
Spotted by: Mangrove Jack (Position Held)

VTM- Emerging West Africa focussed resources company based in Perth, Australia with current interests in the acquisition, exploration and development of iron ore and gold assets.. Acquisition of strategic landholdings in West Africa and the commencement of RC drilling programmes on new projects through its 80% owned Gabonese subsidiary Volta Iron SA, has been granted the Mbombo Iron Ore Project consisting of two (2) exploration licences in Gabon covering an area of 3,922km2. In addition, through its 85% shareholding in Sahel Resources, Volta Mining’s portfolio of gold projects include the Koro and Ibi Palga Gold Projects in Burkina Faso as well as having earnt a 50% interest in the Dangue Gold Project in Burkina Faso. In total the projects cover a combined area of 1,350.1km2.Company has been listed for less than 12 months. Recent CR at .25c. Drilling about to commence. Management has proven track record of producing the goods. (Mcap: $12.47m) Click Here for Chart
[About to commence drilling ]
Spotted by: Sck (No Position Held)

SGQ - Nickel. Significant new nickel target identified on recently acquired tenements at the East Laverton Property, Large ultramafic body (4,000 m x 1,500 m) has the potential to host nickel sulphide mineralisation Zone of secondary nickel enrichment near surface (incl. 24 m @ 0.54 % Ni) reflects high MgO (magnesium oxide) content of underlying fresh ultramafics announcements must be close for the nickel sulphide drilling program of their JV with BHP. Any decent assays and intervals would IMHO send this off on a similar trajectory to SIR given the limited number of shares on issue. There's been an obvious premium being paid for the long dated options SGQO ...perhaps more knowledgeable people than us HC folk see it as a good chance for strong returns. SGQ seems to be tightly held with not many for sale on the sell side. The presentation through the week by the company validates very much my own research which suggests that SGQ have an even bigger anomaly east of their Cambridge anomaly and news from BHP should be imminent .Of particular interest is what lies below SGQ's Athena gold target as it is coincident with a number of BHP's drill holes (Mcap: $11.34m)
[Large Geophys Anomaly Found]
Spotted by: John435 (Position Held)

TNG - Iron Ore Vanadium, With the completion of the Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) for its flagship 100%-owned Mount Peake Iron-Vanadium-Titanium Project in the Northern Territory, acquisition of the Mount Hardy Copper field, and the finalisation of a $13.4 million investment by the Jiangsu Eastern China Non-Ferrous Metals Investment Holding Co. Ltd (“ECE”). The PFS results show an increase in life-of-mine revenues and potential cash flows which build on and enhance all previous results from the Scoping Study and interim PFS completed in 2011.Upcoming drill program on some good copper targets south west of Mt Peak and at Mt Hardy. Plenty of cash so no danger of a raising. I believe we will see an announcement as to drilling in the next 2 weeks of their MT hardy copper prospects. If as they believe it is a VMS deposit and they hit it IMHO it will soar hugely in value (Mcap: $39.8m)
[Announcement regard the commencement of drilling expected]
Spotted by: John435 (Position Held)

PIO - Gold, A lot of activity currently with 3 primary projects and 11 JV and/or royalty projects. Results from Juglah Dome drilling campaign are due any day now (drilling completed in August). Juglah dome is showing promising signs of a very shallow gold deposit including 3m @ 18g/t from 12m @ 5.4g/t. This was only 9m deep and the hit is open at depth so would expect pending results to extend that hole. Average hole depth for the whole campaign is only 21m so this will be very cheap to commercialize. Drilling in progress at Gindalbie project with multiple anomalies identified with significant strikes in adjacent blocks. Also next door is the project they just sold to Carrick Gold for $8m (who intend to develop it). More drilling at the Golden Ridge project. Known gold mineralisation on the block which is open along strike and down plunge. + new targets identified with geochem using the same techniques that identified the Juglah Dome deposits. Plenty of activity over the next couple of months to drive a steady news flow and something looks like it's cooking with the imminent Juglah Dome results judging by the sudden surge of volume. , Cashed up with $8.5m cash + receivables ($3.5m over the next 3 years). Fully funded for 3 years exploration so no one can moan about imminent cap raisings. (Mcap: $15.82m) Click Here for Chart
[Drill results are imminent]
Spotted by: Shadders (No Position Held)

TNG - Iron Ore Vanadium, The spike on Thursday from around 8c on to 10c & up to 14c was in response to Mt Hardy copper rock chips from 4 of 8 Fugro’s HeliTEM EM targets grading up to 46.6% Cu at EM Target #2 with 36 rock chip results of >10% Cu. The fall on Friday back to 10c was probably in line with general spec market caution reaction to the MEU rip-off (4c shares handed out at Directors discretion and dumped into 20c spike). Mkt cap is $40M and TNG has $10M cash and strong Chinese backing. The Vanadium mine proposal reads well in the Hardman research report at http://www.tngltd.com.au/images/tngltd---weirainiin.pdf released Friday (dated Oct 1). Further follow up and anticipation of Mt Hardy EM targets and acceptance of Hardman research report may see TNG rising more than 25% over next month (Mcap: $m)
[Anticipation of Mt Hardy EM targets and positive response to research report]
Spotted by: Blue_Sku_Harvest (No Position Held)

CJO - Recent cap raising was successful. Gold and silver mine development at Cerro De Gallo in Mexican silver belt. Recent report in Australian - business section on 26/09/12. October might be the month for decisions. refer to http://hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=1&tid=1842394&msgid=10737272 and to quote Mr Positive on Hc: "The independently assessed Feasibility clearly demonstrates the Stage 1 heap leach as commercially robust, delivering: 94,600oz Gold equivalent per year, over 7.2 years life of mine, at
an operating cost of $516 per oz Gold equivalent (co-product basis). This ranks Cerro del Gallo Stage 1 among the lowest cash cost gold/ silver production assets proposed for construction by Australian or Canadian listed gold companies at the time of writing.
(Mcap: $86m)
Spotted by: Blue_Sky_Harvest (Position Held)

SEH - Oil/Gas in China , Sino gas has started a run that appears fairly strong. Company has been courting brokers of late and has a fully funded program of works on gas fields in China now through to production. Expectations high of announcements soon re new expl works from drilling underway now. MIE holdings in china recently committed to a $100m investment, and has experience with the govt that makes things more attractive. Fairly new CEO with track record and good diplomatic skills with Chinese. Expectations high for announcements coming in a week or 2 for large increase in resources held awaiting prod (Mcap: $74m)
[Expect announcement for large increase in resource]
Spotted by: BrookCE (Position Held)

ENT - Nickel/Copper New nickel target area at Plato Fraser range (800m x 2,500m) identified by Enterprise’s regional soil sampling 53km SW of Sirius Resources (SIR) Nova nickel sulphide discovery elevated and coincident nickel-copper-cobalt (Ni-Cu-Co) soil geochemical anomaly at Plato similar to soil geochemical signature of Nova Also at Doolgunna Soil sampling identifies 1,500m long x 500m wide copper anomalous zone (open to NE) at Vulcan Prospect. Multi-element geochem signature similar to Sandfire Resources (SFR) DeGrussa discovery.
So main game is nearology to SIR . Strong volumes last Monday and Friday just gone. Expectations of announcements due remain high. Cashed up for investment needs for several quarters. Strong Exploration manager. (Mcap: $46.9m)
[Expectation of Announcements and nearalogy to SIR]
Spotted by: BrookCE (Position Held)




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Weekly Technical Analysis Prospects




PIO - (Oil and Gas ) I love a good confluence of indicators. It's just broken a major support/resistance line around the 3c zone with no less that 6 touches on the weekly, breakout was on significant volume. Coincident with that it's just broken out of a bullish pennant pattern. It's currently retraced to test support on that 3c level but depth shows it's very likely to hold. (Mcap: $15.82m) Click Here for Chart
Spotted by: Shadders (No Position Held)

SGQ - (Nickle in WA ) SGQ is looking prime for a bounce on technicals... Supported by a 38.2 and 50% fib. Retraced on very low volume. Wouldn't be surprised to see this bounce from here. Target for next leg 29c (Mcap:$23.1) Click Here for Chart
Spotted by: Shadders (No Position Held)

MRP - (Gold in WA ) End of an ascending triangle with the macd building momentum in the last month on a volume increase and the slow stocks look due to come out of over sold on a reverse head and Shoulders Pattern (Mcap: $m)
Spotted by: (No Position Held)

RID - (Gold in Africa) Gap up and Spike on volume to 54% on 27th Aug followed by a 3 week retrace. Break of that retrace line was supported with strong volume and broke through to the all time high. Tested support of the 10 day MA last week then a bit more upside to close on fri on top of the previous all time high at 21c. I anticipate this pattern to break to the upside early next week. Entry at break off this level on volume. Measured initial Target suggesting 27-28c or 28-33% (Mcap: $3.5m)
Spotted by: Pilsner (No Position Held)

BSL - (Steel Producer) Love this ascending triangle setup on the daily. Break of 42c resistance gives a 60c ST profit target by the depth of the pattern. Lovely higher lows over the last few weeks and OBV increasing steadily. Once the gap to 50c is filled there is little resistance to 80c. Nice recovery setup. (Mcap: $1339m)
Spotted by: Timbosivic (No Position Held)

SUR - Bullish engulfing candle and a small bull flag. Stock is breaking up through the Downtrend that has been in place for some time.30d Ma is heading towards a golden cross. All short Term MAs are heading upwards. (Mcap: $m) Click Here for Chart
Spotted by: Haspete (No Position Held)

LOM - (Diamonds in Angola) - Symmetrical Triangle formation couple with a reasonably strong uptrend. Expect the Stock to test this ascending trend line and to bounce off it higher. Entry will be when the Stock moves above the upper edge of the symmetrical triangle with volume or as it finds support and bounced of the
ascending trend line. (Mcap: $30.6m)
Spotted by: Freehold (Position Held)

SGQ - (Ni Near Laverton WA) Spike early this week has seen selling into the retrace and volume has dropped away to almost nothing which tells me that the sellers are becoming disinterested/exhausted at these levels... I expect demand will re-enter soon. Look for an approach on 20c with increased volume. (Mcap: $23.1m)
Spotted by: Freehold (No Position Held)

CXU - (U in WA, SA and NT )Over the last 10 day the stock has shown heavy volume much more than usual which indicates to me that someone has taken an interest and is accumulating. At the top of the Spike volume was highest (as is usual) and has dropped off on the retrace and now risen again on the entry of support.. Buy on break to new high with Volume. (Mcap: $31m)
Spotted by: Freehold (No Position Held)

CLY - (Copper and Gold) Sudden and strong uptrend with large increase in volume over previous trading activity. Stock is currently on its 2nd retrace and again I expect support to enter over the next few days. Entry is on show of support, exit will be on break of ascending trend line. (Mcap: $7.56m)
Spotted by: Freehold (No Position Held)

RBX - (AU Producer in NSW) Sharp upwards spike on increased volume followed by a equally sharp selloff. Would want to see consistent volume even through the retrace (it can be decreasing). Mildly concerned about liquidity historically entry on break to the 0.005c region with an uptick in Volume. (Mcap: $8.29m)
Spotted by: Freehold (No Position Held)

CVY - - (Gold) Strong rally with a picture perfect bull flag formation with sharply decreasing volume. Two entries are on the break of the upper edge of the flag and then at break to new high with volume. (Mcap: $31.2m)
Spotted by: Freehold (No Position Held)

CVR - (Gold) Gradual increase in volume of the last month or so has culminated in a mini rally which has transformed into a consolidation area above 0.03c, volume on average has dropped off. Entry on break to new high with rise in volume. (Mcap: $23.6m)
Spotted by: Freehold (No Position Held)

STX- (Oil /Gas) Considerable increased buying interest in the last 2-3 weeks has lead to a rally. This rally has not tapered off but interesting has not retraced very far before light support entered on Friday 28th Sept. Thinking it has more in the tank from here. (Mcap: $129m)
Spotted by: Freehold (No Position Held)

MZI - (Zircon, Leuxone in Australia) Breaking 5 year downtrend recently with a test of 4c now imminent. Has consolidated after its recent strong rally volume has dropped off slightly. You could argue that the stock has been in uptrend all year with 1 major pull back in Jul/Aug. Break on break out of consolidation area (Mcap: $52m)
Spotted by: J8 (Position Held)

ACN - (Oil/Gas in Cooper basin Australia ) Steadily rising chart last for the two months, with higher highs and lows and of late significant increases in volume, nothing dramatic but looks like carefully paced accumulation. (Mcap: $9.52m)
Spotted by: Mangrove Jack (Position Held)



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Links to Previous Weeks Lists


No.34: Short Term FA & TA Leads (24th - 28th Sept) - Click HERE

No.33: Short Term FA & TA Leads (17th - 21st Sep) - Click HERE

No.32: Short Term FA & TA Leads (10th - 14th Sep) - Click HERE

No.31: Short Term FA & TA Leads (3rd -7th Sep) - Click HERE