bhp remains optimistic on copper outlook, page-5

ozwander,

Look at this another way

USD 3.75/lb and CDU AUD 4.61/sh

means I along with about 200M shares at start of mining..estimate

USD:AUD 1.025

Means 0.57 kg of Cu if I buy a share now, thats the shares backing in pure copper..

200M means 114311 tonnes of copper.

To cover costs taxes etc, we need to dig up another 50%

So currently need about 172,000 tonnes

Las Minerale (as of July 2006) 25 million tonnes @ 2% Cu equivalent, Rocklands Central & South (as of May 2006) 5.5 million tonnes @ 0.77% Cu.

WE know Cu is about 2/3 of this, so all up about 550,000 tonne x2/3 = 363000 tonnes.

Allowing for price and cost risks and time value money etc there is a bit left on the upside.i.e 172,000 vs potential 363,000

Thats why identifying extra Cu now within and around the periphery is important because it is almost a straight adder (because the costs for digging etc are essentially zero plus some processing costs ) adds approximately say 75% of the Cu content value straight to the sp.

Rough as guts, but probably better than the JORC code. I learned years ago if the project doesn't make excellent financial sense based on a calculation on the back of a cigarette packet the project won't work, because as time goes by time you learn all the problems and there is rarely any good news...if there is its luck.

A projected value of $6.50 is not unreasonable as-is, but just keep adding that 75% x $/kg x AUD:USD x (Cu total kg) /No. shares to the sp every time new finds become quantified.

Anyone else have simpler method, or argument, or tidy up?