potential market size of muc1 cancers for cvac

I’ve been meaning to do this for a while but I was spurred by the comments of anther poster.
I thought I would run some numbers the potential market for Cvac - should it prove effective against other cancers that over-express MUC-1.

Please realise that this is mostly an academic exercise, as there are far too many ‘what if’s’, assumptions and years of further development before this market comes to fruition. Regardless, it’s interesting to estimate the potential future market none-the-less.

It’s difficult getting accurate and comparable figures for cancer patients as the larger studies are done infrequently, so we’re left with stats and estimates across different years. Also cross-market discrepancies (US, UK, EU, global)
So, for simplicity’s sake, I will use just the US stats in the estimates but give additional patient population data for you to extrapolate the extra impact.

---apologies if the formatting fails, 'tab' doesn't seem to work---

MUC-1 cancers:
Ovarian: 25,000 (we know Prima’s ‘major market’ numbers from previous presentations but I’ll use the US stats for comparability – Global stats: 318,000 FYI)
Pancreatic: 43,000 (Global: 266,000)
Renal: 64,000 (Global: 200,000)
Colon: 140,000 (Global: 600,000)
Lung: 218,00 (Global: 1.6M)
Prostate: 240,000 (Global: 670,000)
Breast: 260,000 (Global: About 1.4M)

Total: 990,000 (Global: 4.7M)

Around 90% of each cancer over-expresses MUC-1.

MUC-1 Total: 891,000

We have more competition in the other indications than we do in ovarian (we don’t have orphan drug status) and some wouldn't be considered as having an unmet need (prostate) but since our technology is unique, and there is the possibility of adjunctive and complimentary treatments with other target oncology, there's room for more than one therapy.

So let’s assume a market share of 5% to be on the conservative side.

CVac market @ 5% share: 44,550

Assume a treatment cost of $70K and an eventual margin of 75% = $52,500 gross profit per treatment.

Multiplied by 5% of US market of MUC-1 over-expressing cancers:

$2,338,875,000

That’s $2.3 BILLION gross profit a year just from the United States alone


Even if we only capture 1% of the US market, it’s still nearly $470M gross profit per year. (1% of global market is $2.2 Billion)

As I say, more of an academic exercise, but gives you an idea of the sheer potential of a well-managed, well-designed cancer immunotherapy. Fingers crossed that CVac is that immunotherapy.




For those that haven't read the company presentations, they conservatively estimate 10% share of ovarian cancer therapy in the major markets (US,UK,EU,JP,AU) they arrived at the figure of 3,300 CVac patients per year.

Using the above figures we get $173,250,000 gross p.a just for ovarian cancer.
Now, for people who are dumping because they're scared PRR has no potential. Have a look at today's market cap.
We could make that much profit in one year, just from 10% of the ovarian cancer market.

With orphan drug status and no apparent competition for some years, I believe we're more likely to get 20-30% of the market.
Especially, if covered by Medicare and the various other government/social health plans.

I look forward to the ICS data pre- the 15th.
It is the key to unlocking the hypothetical numbers above.