42m at 44g/t - on the radar, page-138

OK, my two bobs worth. With the current MC sitting at $197.7M, one has to agree it is undervalued but not by a huge multiplier (not much below SIR and they have a lot of hype driving their price). Even if we ignore the games people play with SP and the impact on MC, I can't see the MC go much above $300M until production starts. Now, I don't care what anyone says, ABU will need to raise more cash to get into production in a consistent way. The MINIMUM it would cost is around $50 – 60M for a plant, permitting, camp, infrastructure plus working capital (permitting alone can cost over $2M). Assume that they can keep the dilution to 15% (Equity raising of around $30M, the rest debt), we will then have around 3.7 billion shares on issue and could see the MC go to somewhere between NST and SLR, say $700M. This gives a SP of around 19 cents. When (or if) ABU show that they can run and manage an operating mine well, their MC could go towards $1Bn or a SP of around 30 cents. It will not go above the $1 mark without a consolidation or a significant lift in production to plus 300,000/yr with good mine life.
The other option to raising cash has been suggested as “taking out” TAM. I pray this is not on the cards as it would not only dilute a good company but would dilute a good ore-body as well. There are better ways to get the ore treated – build your own mill is usually the answer.
Not sure who said it recently – Define the ore body, get the permits, develop a plan and implement it. The exploration phase of this deposit must be a lot of fun and excitement but the next phase will pay the piper – ounces out the door works for all.
All my opinions only etc. etc.