I spent some time today deciding whether to buy on the price dip today given “positive” interim clinical trial results. I decided not to and here is my reasoning.
The 7 non-randomised CVAC patients are relevant for safety but not for efficacy. The efficacy end point requires randomised patients. This group of 7 patients also have been on the study longer and this would affect mean PFS numbers. So the total number of scientifically relevant patients was 56 and I limited my analysis to this group.
The difference in PFS between randomised CVAC and OSC groups was 44 days. This is not a great difference so I wanted to work out the likelihood of this increasing or not and the likelihood of it being statistically significant at the end of the study (these 2 are related since a smaller difference is more difficult to prove statistically). So I then focussed on patients who had progressed in each group.
The number of patients who progressed was:
Remission 1: (CVAC: 9/18 OSC 5/17)
Remission 2: (CVAC: 4/11 OSC: 8/10)
So, the trend is heavily against CVAC in Remission 1 and for CVAC in Remission 2.
Overall: (CVAC: 13/29 OSC: 13/27)
Overall, there is not much of a trend. What the numbers have running against them going forward is the larger number of patients in the OSC group in Remission 1 who have not progressed. As we speak, these patients are probably increasing the mean PFS of the OSC group. While the opposite is true for the Remission 2 group, this will have less impact on the mean due to the lower PFS in this group (as one would expect).
This is interim data so I can only make an educated guess. I suspect that the CAN-003 study final results will not show an improvement in progression free survival in the Remission 1 group. There is likely to be a favourable trend for CVAC in the Remission 2 group but since this group is very small, there may not be a statistical difference. I thus suspect the overall result will be no significant difference when the 2 groups are combined.
I have no inside information or specialist insight, this is purely a personal analysis and is why I did not buy today. I would be keen to hear other views, this is my personal view and analysis only. I know holders often don't like posts like this from non-holders but if it is wrong, let's hear about it and why. Judging on the SP today, I suspect others have done a similar analysis.
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40.5¢ |
Change
0.005(1.25%) |
Mkt cap ! $588.3M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
40.0¢ | 40.5¢ | 39.8¢ | $2.431M | 6.045M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 6880 | 40.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
40.5¢ | 85353 | 3 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 6880 | 0.400 |
3 | 153861 | 0.395 |
5 | 142266 | 0.390 |
5 | 73412 | 0.385 |
11 | 201885 | 0.380 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.405 | 85353 | 3 |
0.410 | 269251 | 11 |
0.415 | 239943 | 10 |
0.420 | 492300 | 8 |
0.425 | 50700 | 3 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 12/09/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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