just how close is billabong to insolvency?, page-24

furniture, BBG is probably the most interesting share on the ASX at the moment, in my opinion. If one looked at the share price decline, one might say it is too much. If one looked at the probability of a $200m market cap at say 41c, one might say that is too low. A market guideline has generally been that a share price returns to the pre-takeover price, but this is not happening. I can only see that the market is saying BBG might be a "value trap", so share price and market cap are not the issue here.

The news today that BBG is losing market share is not a bullish sign. The share price might have stayed ok but for that. Then the word that the advising broker to TPG has put a valuation on it of half the current price... well, one can believe those things or not, but I presume they have some rationale for it, and that is what would be worth looking at- the entire Credit Suisse recommendation.

The market is forward looking, though, so if there are any positive catalysts, we'll hear about them. We also know that bounces happen at some point. The value funds may also take a look at investing. If Orbis/Alan Gray or those types come in, that could be some kind of sign. Market sentiment doesn't seem great, and moral would be low at the upper echelons of BBG. It's very hard to be bullish now on this company- despite the share price and market cap.