lyc meltdown , page-23

Arafura, you are full of negativity now that you've sold.

Remember, almost everyone, including many in SMSL, believe the LAMP will eventually be approved. It's not a matter of "if", just "when". Sure, delays will chip away at the shareprice but after the 20% fall last week you would have to think that a fair bit of pessimism is already factored in.

So while you only see doom and gloom, others with a more positive or longer-term outlook see this as a speed hump and even an opportunity to top up.

Right now, here's how I see things for the November court hearing:

- odds of the TOL getting the green light - about 80%. Shareprice gain about 50% (to 95c).

- odds of TOL staying on hold pending the judicial review, 20%. Shareprice drop - 30% (to 50c)

I'll probably base my investment risk on that model.