Thanks for the response. Enjoyed it and agree with you on some points.
1. I would have sold before the offer:
Actually, I had openly stated some time back, I was going to stay aboard and review the June and Sep Quarterlies and then review my position unless something substantial happened. Something substantial has happened, and I am now only invested in the hope that this gets across the line.
2. The current offer has seen the price drop
No doubt. I recently pasted a graph showing our performance against other goldies, and had the offer not been made, i think we would be now somewhere between 5c and 6c - however, long term fundamentals of the company will not have waivered from what was already known. This deal has cost me (and others), money now, which i hope to recoup at a later date
3. Shandong Increases Interest
There is no way I can make my vote compete against a majority holder, nonetheless, i will vote YES for this deal. There is indeed a risk that Shandong could go for the whole thing, but if they started picking up 1% increments then we win, and we will make money. Please realise that every 1% moving forward is about 92M shares. That will push the price up and we will be happy (well, I will be). If a takeover becomes evident, we may see some real action.
4. Institutional Holders
FML and Shandong will be courting the big players that you speak off. I cannot talk of any deals that are being done, but in reality, if they are done behind closed doors, it won't be the 1st time. If say FML convinced a major holder to vote yes, it would be so on the promise of a profit. Thus, that holder will have an undertaking that either the share price will escalate or that they will be able to sell their shares off market for a higher price. Again, and all other things being equal, we could benefit from this.
I applaud you for your efforts and posts, I think you bring a lot to this forum on this topic. I also would like to make it clear to you, that I have been on board for a long time, like many others, and we have seen the disappointment time and again. Over the years, I say to myself "one day". I became emotionally attached to this stock and it is only in the past 6-9 months that I have been able to let go of this attachment. I had it with others as well, and funnily enough, almost of the stocks I fell in love with were ones which did not yield a return for me (over long periods), but merely the promise of one in the future. I have since sold each and every company with which i had an emotional attachment and have done quite well by moving to companies which i see as making me some coin, but with which I have no attachment.
I merely see this deal as a final chance for me and others to finally taste that carrot that has been dangled in front of me for over 4 years now. They gave me a couple of little bites along the way, but more brunch than a real meal. Shandong can open the locks on all the doors for me to dine in style.
Beg to differ as you may (all of the no camp), but I honestly speak from experience when i say that FML continually over-promises. Now they can promise and actually have the cash to make it happen.
If I back a horse, I can see it, here it and get a result either way (it's definitive). With FML, they have what I believe to be one of the very best stallions in Australia, one that can rival almost any other race horse, but they keep him in the paddock. Sore shins, won't eat his food - every excuse under the sun. I want to see the horse run. He is scratched each week and all I do is get my money back (actually, they seem to take some deductions from my refund). Anyone who thinks FML is not sitting on an absolute bonanza really does have rocks in their head and I really want to try and stay the course now and see that bonanza come to life.
Enjoy your evening.
FML Price at posting:
3.7¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)