IF SLUGCATCHER was an investment banker, he would be looking at the situation with Woodside Petroleum, Noble Energy and Hess Corporation and quietly muttering under his breath: “deal”.
Not easy, but the best deals never are. There is the potential for a three-way marriage made in heaven if management at the three oil companies can overcome the classic human problem of ego, and find a way to make one-plus-one-plus-one equals five.
Boiled down, but desperately in need of the explanation that follows, Hess and Noble have the gas. Woodside has the skills to turn gas-in-the-ground into LNG for sale in Asia and Europe.
In theory, it is a beautiful concept. All it needs is what every good orchestra requires, a skilful conductor to make it happen, and for all concerned to then make a bucketload of money.
The facts, as best known, start with a report over the weekend in The Australian linking Woodside to a visit by a senior Australian government minister to Israel earlier this year.
Bill Shorten, Minister for Workplace Relations, was said to have had a friendly chat with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, about Australian assistance in gas field development.
It is not hard to link that suggestion with talks held by Woodside with Hess over that company’s Australian gas assets to link the LNG skills of Woodside with the gas of Noble and Hess.
Both Hess and Noble fall into the category of mid-tier, US-based petroleum producers. They are of a size sufficient to be invited to major oil and gas events, but barely rate when measured alongside the ugly sisters of global oil, ExxonMobil, Shell, BP and the other giants.
Woodside is the Australian in this trifecta of opportunity, but a company with a history that needs to be “worked through”, in the form of a residual 23% shareholding held by Royal Dutch Shell.
In its simplest terms, Noble and Hess have the gas. Woodside has the LNG-knowledge, though in the case of Noble and its Israeli gas, particularly the 17 trillion cubic foot Leviathan discovery, there is a problem with Shell’s legacy stake.
How deliciously simple it would be for Woodside to form a close working relationship with Noble and combine undeveloped gas with 20 years of accumulated LNG-processing knowledge.
The same argument applies to Hess and Woodside, with Hess sitting on valuable discoveries and Woodside looking for more gas to expand its processing facility at Pluto.
Constructing a deal out of that situation should not tax the brainpower at a Goldman Sachs or a JP Morgan, given that The Slug can see the potential for wealth creation.
All three companies are of a broadly similar size, with Woodside the largest as measured by market capitalisation. It is valued on the Australian Securities Exchange at $29.6 billion ($US28.7 billion). Hess is capitalised on the New York Stock Exchange at $US18.5 billion. Noble at $US16.7 billion.
Collectively, the three mid-tier stocks add up to $US63.9 billion, about 15% the size of Exxon Mobil at $425 billion, and about the same small fraction of Shell’s market value.
Between the three mid-tier stocks there is the potential to create something of considerable value, though only if certain steps are taken. That starts with Shell’s exit from Woodside’s share register. At current prices that would net Shell about $US6.8 billion.
In theory, Noble and Hess could acquire Shell’s 23% Woodside stake at, say, $US4 billion apiece (paying Shell an appropriate premium over the market). They would come out with 11.5% of their Australian look-alike cousin – with the LNG expertise they need.
For Shell it would finalise its exit from a company which, to use the Australian vernacular, has been a pain in the arse thanks to bloody-minded managers who refused to sing from the official Shell song book.
Exiting Woodside, if it is thinking about a deal with Noble, would also be an essential step given Shell’s deep Middle East relationships with Arab/Muslim countries and their strict rules about doing business with anything Israeli.
What a neat little package The Slug has conceived and which someone at an investment bank can now claim as his own.
All they have to do is convince Shell it is time to dump its residual 23% stake in Woodside and get Noble and Hess to buy equal shares in that 23% stake.
Then they have to encourage Woodside to sign a deal with Noble for the development of Leviathan as an LNG project and do the same with the Equus project of Hess.
If all that happens it is a case of standing back and watching the creation of a globally significant LNG production company with Woodside, Hess and Noble as the major shareholders.
A dream?
Maybe, but there are undoubtedly the seeds of something significant if sufficient will power can be garnered, and management of all three encouraged to act in a unified manner that could create value for everyone.
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