Beachtrade: I'm not offended :) I'm pretty difficult to offend.
Thanks for the responses, everyone who took the time. It sure does sound very much like a shot in the dark with virtually no way to make any calculations.
I agree that oil companies often get their estimates wrong, but at least there's a ball park. Obviously in explorers there are unknowns and risks, but at least you have something to make a guess based on. If it's a duster it's always bad, but you have an idea of how good it might be and how badly a duster will hurt the company. I can say something like "If x, then y, if a, then b". On this one it's just... well... yep, impossible to be exacting.
That being the case, if you think it's going to be a success, it's basically a matter of finding a good entry point based on timing of announcements or solely on the technicals (which at the moment pretty clearly indicate that now is a bad time to buy, especially with full swing commercial scale application of the technology so far away).
Most of the time these 'crazy new idea' companies end up falling over, but even if they succeed, there is often a long period of stagnation and usually decline in the years preceding commercial application and fundamental success. That being the case, I see getting on board now most likely a charitable act but not a profitable one. Going on the odds, it would be a much better risk, in my opinion, to wait until the share price starts to rise when things are happening or getting very close rather than get in early and watch your portfolio's value decline. Even if the share price doesn't fall between now and a few years' time, it's a much better risk and allocation of funds to wait.
I'll continue to watch, thanks again to those who responded. Good luck to all holders, and I hope things go well enough for me to want to join you at some stage.
AEB Price at posting:
28.5¢ Sentiment: ST Sell Disclosure: Not Held
