of course part of my strategy is 'trying to time the mkt'.
A few points:
A) yes i believe banks have underestimated a coming loom in bad debts. As one commentator wrote after NAB announced their 22% fall in profit after a modest jump in bad debt: 'last time NAB announced provisions for bad debt it proved to be only a quarter of the final figure'. All the banks have form in this regard. But NAB is top of list.
B) What NAB CEO effectively said is: 'I have a 2nd hand car that's worth $20,000. But i'm only being offered $7,000 so I'm not selling it'. Watch UK 'assets' drain NAB for many moons to come imo.
C) My point re BOQ is: A significant rise in bad debts can affect balance sheet substantially. i.e. A loan book of 100 billion only needs 1% to go belly-up and it impacts profits substantially. WBC went through a torrid period in early 90's. To dismiss BOQ management as total clods is an exaggeration. Are their models vastly different from the others?
I have a position and explained it... ad infinitum. Let's see how world economy pans out over next 6-18 months. If DOW et al drop 33% i can't see how our banks will be unaffected. Its never happened before. Yes, capital raisings and better risk management see our banks as stronger than in 2007, but feel a fall in SP is more likely than a rise. However, i was surprised at strength of today's unemployment figures.
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Last
$32.41 |
Change
-0.140(0.43%) |
Mkt cap ! $111.4B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$32.54 | $32.67 | $32.31 | $234.7M | 7.510M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 15720 | $32.40 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$32.44 | 1208 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 15587 | 32.400 |
1 | 77 | 32.370 |
3 | 13881 | 32.360 |
2 | 1175 | 32.350 |
1 | 11568 | 32.340 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
32.440 | 1000 | 1 |
32.450 | 1030 | 2 |
32.470 | 1099 | 1 |
32.480 | 12858 | 4 |
32.490 | 2076 | 5 |
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