Ann: Ceasing to be a substantial holder , page-2

those notices from Bumi are interesting imho.
It's not the fact that they have sold, but the Timing!?

We have posted here before that SAAD was in something similiar to Administration (or whatever ie there were problems of some description) so they were probably a seller, plus I think they did not take up the last R/I.

Also we have read extensively about the problems of Bumi and Rothschild, plus the news that Bumi is having financial issues, and the outlook for coal is not promising.

So the fact that one has sold, really is not surprising.

What I find curious is the timing. Why sell now at 40c approx, when they could have sold back in May or earlier when the price was higher? And WHY sell about a week before the AGM, when the Directors have stated that they have called for "change of control" proposals to be provided before the AGM?? Why not wait?

I guess they may have the view that a proposal may not eventuate - and of course if that does not happen, the SP will drop.

And of course, if we get to the AGM, and the Board does not provide tangible news of a "change of control" transaction, even if it is not executed or is still in negotiation, then the SP will drop.

So just maybe, Bumi is pre-empting some poor news?

BUT - I don't think that is so.

The problem with Bumi is that they have such a sizeable parcel - they simply cannot unload it on market.
Bumi can only really sell to a wholesale type buyer ie an institution or under a t/o.

So I reckon they have sold down in order to send a message to LNG or Petro.
That message could be:
- Bumi is a seller
- Bumi is a short term seller
- Bumi is a seller around these prices??
- If LNG/Petro want Bumi's shares, they better hurry up, else the shares will go to the open market over time
- It seems that Bumi may have been selling small parcels of shares since date of last A/R. I mention that because in A/R Bumi is shown to hold 20,452,886 shares as at 24 Sept 2012. If you deduct the shares sold on 1/11/12 and 2/11/12 (totalling 742,944) they should have a total at that point, of 19,709,942 - yet in that notice they say they have 18,168,153? So where did the difference of 1,541,789 go ???

Assuming those numbers are correct, the only explanation I can see is that Bumi has been dribbling their shares onto the market in small parcels. A substantial s/h only needs to lodge a change in Sub S/H notice if their shareholding in the company changes by 1% or more.

One can see that enough shares have traded since 24 Sept to absorb that Bumi parcel. See 12-16 Oct sales.

So now Bumi should now hold 17,328,876 shares or 4.87% of the total.
They now do not have to lodge anymore Sub S/H notices, so we will not know what they are doing.

What this tells us, I think, that much of this selling pressure is coming, not from a "capper" but from Bumi selling-down?

What do you think ??

Cheers (sorry for the large image)