Thord,
I think its not a case of MAD doing it tough specifically but the entire Oil and Gas industry.
Oil and Gas prices have plummeted since early this year, and even though MAD is low cost, the potential profitability (which directly correlates to MC) has been taken down due to the dropping oil price going forward.
US has the highest oil reserves since 1996 currently, which is an amazing thing to think about considering in 1996 the oil price was an astounding $19/barrel.
Will it go that low again? I highly doubt it, as BRICS come into the spotlight and EURO/US slow down, the overall usage of oil is still going to be far higher than it was in 1996 when all of BRICS were severely under-developed.
However, during GFC it hit $40/barrel and it could get there again, considering its already over a third of the way there (from $110 to $85).
Going forward we also have the 'fiscal cliff', Spain bailout, greece revisit, a euro breakup/country leaving the euro and a china slowdown (most likely due to outside influences and its own over-growth last few years)...
Rough 12 months? you betcha. Rough 4-5 years, you betcha!
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