a 23% fall in price in 6 months is 'ok'? personally I find it a game changer for a lot of companies. Canadian oil sands projects cost approximately 80$/barrel to produce, so their margins are mighty thin.
The majors + middle east produce at sub $40 per barrel for sure, and MAD is apparently breaking even at $40 (production only) but all the other sources of oil are far far above that $ value.
Think of all the shale oilers that have been keeping their head above water due to condensate (oil) prices being high while US gas prices are abysmal.
As I said, I don't think we will get INSANELY cheap oil like in the 90's, but it can drop further if the US and EURO fall into recession, which is partly whats being priced in here.
MAD has actually not lost any ground in the last 6 months, being still above its low. If you look at the chart below, you will see that in september it crashed from 149 and then began trading in-sync with oil price almost. This was ALSO the point at which it was accepted into the S&P 300.
This could either be a wicked coincidence or MAD has moved from speculative realm (wide eyed optimistic dreams) to a more diverse investor base including those who want to shield themselves when oil (and profit margins) fall.
FDM Price at posting:
93.5¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held