re: Ann: 2012 Annual General Meeting 23 Novem... Very true Autosime and you raise many very interesting issues. At the moment, being an ICN shareholder, I am mainly looking at the commerciality factor that will bring cash onto the bottom line. When, and how much.
In Reg's AGM statement he says this:-
"Billions of dollars will be spent by petroleum companieS on exploration and development in the Cooper Basin over the next five years.
Beach is negotiating the sale of conventional Cooper Basin gas reserves with a number of parties amid strong demand."
That tends to suggest to me that Beach, or any other producer from the CB will not have any trouble selling their gas and Reg has also said that he sees Beach as a "swing" provider in the future. Seems to me that with all the problems with CSG, the extra demands for gas as a "clean" energy source and the technology advancements with shale gas, that getting the right price may not be an issue either.
And you are right, they don't have to develop the entire Permit to commercialise it. Just look what STO has done with Moomba-191.
They are selling that shale gas commercially from just one well.
The way that the 218 wells and Halifax-1 are looking, if Moomba-191 is considered commercial, the apparently far better and richer structures in 218 and 855 (which is claimed to be THE sweet spot of the Nappamerri Trough), suggest strongly that there may not need to be the "massive" capex that the market has always considered to be a deterrent to commercialise shale gas from the C.B.
The sales from those proven up wells alone would help fund the ongoing development costs which would continue over many years, unlike CSG, where literally dozens of wells have to be proven up to enable commercial GSAs to be negotiated.
And I like your first sentence. This is happening with most major developments. The buyer is also contributing to the capex with arrangements with the supplier like offsetting their contributions against forward sales (as Alcoa is doing in W.A.) or direct equity into the project.
That has a double benefit by speeding up the development and supply, plus giving the buyer far more security of supply into the future. That is certainly a win/win strategy.
But, my greatest interest is in what David Knox from Santos keeps saying "we must have co-operation and co-ordination" to minimize the current blow out of costs due to duplication and competing demands for services. Love to see how that plays out, could be most significant for both Beach and Icon. Be watching that very closely.
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- Ann: 2012 Annual General Meeting 23 November 2012
Ann: 2012 Annual General Meeting 23 November 2012, page-17
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