dividend, cr or nada, page-34

firi8269,

QBE does not work on the financial yr July/June, it works on the calendar yr Jan/Dec.

The last results were for the half ended 30 June, NPAT US$760M. So the co. prediction for full yr at 31 Dec, lets call it US$1B, only leaves around US$240 NPAT for the 2nd 6 mths (after cat payouts).

Last yrs full NPAT was US704M, but the dividend ratio to NPAT was close to 100%...now only paying up to 70%.

Jossette,

The big sellers have been around since well before Sandy came on the scene. I have only been watching the trading closely on this stock since July, so I can't comment before that, but looking at the chart dynamics, they could well have been at it leading into last January and continuing.

From the full year results for 2011 report, the top 20 for this stock held in excess of 70%...798.8M of the 1.115B on issue.

My theory is that, with 'global warming' and some of the 'out of character' weather events that we seem to keep seeing around the world, particularly over the last few years, it's not inconceivable that a lot of these large holders want to 'lighten their load' in this stock for what would be obvious reasons.
Perhaps they can't see a year ahead without major cats. Also, the new dividend ratio might leave a few thinking, "I can get a 70% of NPAT payout at the banks, and with way less risk than in this stock!"...was a lot of money from here going into the banks recently?

If this is the case, with so much stock to move (depending on their new weighting), it will play havoc with the sp, and the time involved to move that much stock can be considerable...without totally wrecking the sp.

All IMO of course.