wednesday sharing cranker, page-18

Mow, Kates, R2R et al just picking up from yesterday.

Mo on your comment re fib levels. I basically group TA into two sub groups;

The first group has a focus on mechanics. It's very much about the line in the sand type scenario. Typically actions are pre-planned, they focus heavily on management levels and do not incorporate any psychological aspect such as fear, greed etc. Methods that fall into this category are basic Fibonacci including the Andrews and Lucas ratios, Astro (unless proven otherwise), many indicators when used as designed, speed lines, data matching and many others. There is one common that all of these require in order to be profitable which you mentioned yesterday - consistency.

The second groups focus is more based on the psychological aspect and generally takes on more of an evolving process. Often there are grey areas that are subject to the end users interpretation. It's goal is to have a deeper understanding of the 'why' behind an action. Techniques that typically fall into this group are Candle and Bar analysis, VSA, some advanced Fibonacci, Elliott, pattern recognition etc.

Both have their advantages and disadvantages. The key to the mechanical aspect being successful is in consistent disciplined management. As the fake random number chart yesterday showed, anything can have a level of profitability when consistent enough. The key is being able to show and test that consistency.

The key to the psychological aspect requires a deeper understanding and in my experience can take far more learning and experience to achieve a high level. Elliott theory is a good example of the subjective aspect. There are few that fully 'get' Elliott. I do know which of the two groups has a greater degree of predictability. We can determine actions surrounding dividends, company announcements or world events from data such as volume or trade size and frequency. By understanding the thought process as actioned in the chart we have a greater understanding of where that action is likely to lead.

That said yes both can be profitable either in their own right or as a hybrid of the two.