why i have gone long this week, page-15

No sentiment because it hinges so much on a no vote.

It could be that the share price is down because of the uncertainty on the vote pricing in a no vote as you say, and therefore conclude with a yes vote the price will go up again. However it is also possible that it is the risk of a yes vote that has dropped the price and a yes vote will see the price drop significantly further.

Look at the price when the initial announcement was made, and also when they approached the institutions in April. I saw the price drop instantly on the anouncement. This indicates to me it was the possiblity of a yes vote that dropped the price. Since then the price has been held up by a chance of a no vote.

The reason I see is the institutional holders of FML will not want to hold with a majority share holder controling the company, nor will the index funds. If the vote is yes then these will need to dump. There is no reason for the market cap to hold above the cash holding either, since cash only protects the share price if there is a chance of a takeover, which with Shandong as a majority holder there is no chance of an alternate takeover.

The quarterly reports and even the fair value report acknowledge that FML is running cash positive, and the extra cash is only needed to accelerate further developments. If the deal does not go ahead, there is no reason for the share price to drop. No further capital raising would be done untill our share price has recovered to the levels of our gold producing peers, which with the increasing long term gold price would put us back over 6c a share.

I am holding through the AGM vote, and of course if there is a yes vote will be happy to be proved wrong if the price does go up I will be cautiously happy. I am only posting this as a warning to all to watch the price and the AGM carefully, as there is no justification for assuming the price will go up after the AGM whatever the vote. There is significant risk and everyone should watch things carefully, and not rely on ANYONES opinion here. The potential price movement is very large either way.

There may be also be a false start where the price moves sharply (read 5-10% either direction) and then reverses when the sophisticated traders show their hand. So watch the volume as well as the price action and selling into a low volume move.

Do your own research do not rely on my comments here, they are just my guesswork. Good luck all and I hope whatever the vote is, that the people in favour of that decision are correct about the markets reaction. Do your own research and make your own decisions.