fundamentals , page-22

Sorry Jason but the probabilities of a CLD basket at $60 are Buckle's and none, at any stage in the foreseeable future. Just not enough CREO v Ce/La.
CLD/Duncan will probably average out a bit higher but with a much higher average COP.
The basket price is just a broad indicator and NC appears very comfortable at a 440 basket. Terms of the offtake agreements, price/customer specs, value add via Siemans/Rhodia? JV deals, etc PLUS COP.
Something that is never discussed here in any depth is the 12 year tax exemption. Ok, we don't pay any tax on profits but how many realise we don't pay any tax on inputs for the duration?

We have absolutely got no idea of Lynas's value add strategy, beyond them leveraging product supply into 45% equity with the Siemans JV (Moly paid $1.3B for Neo) and little idea of steady state COP, particularly the tax exempt impact on imputs. No analyst to my knowledge has factored any of this.

NC is as tight as a fish's bum, and he's had a hell of a fright over the past 12 months or so, but study the material (and hints, best come from NC's Q) that we do have and overlay them on the emerging clarity in the RE space and I think you will see that Lynas's business plan is structured to today's reality rather than yesterday's bubble.