billy... i'm glad you asked

What would a sensible offer be .... hmmm

1. Value of total resource. Using some dated April 2012 metrics proffered by Versant Partners, EV/lb = US$4.49 ~ US$5.40. This assumes B4M producing.
2. Assume AUDUSD @ 1.04
3. Some maths suggest then a total EV ~ A$306M ~ A$368M
4. IMO : Compared to current market cap and excluding say $26M cash, AGS looks light to the tune of about A$20M ~ A$40M
5. The facility is worth more to Heathgate than AGS. Heathgate have customers. AGS does not. Heathgate have existing processing capability. AGS does not. Let's skew it like this ... let's say that Heatgate is prepared to pay $15M above the odds
6. The cost of the M&DC case will be say A$5m ~ $A10m each.
7. Lets say then that through Heathgate eyes the site is worth [low] $306+$15+$10=$331M; [high]$368+$15+$10=$393M.
8. A base price for the mine only then for the 25% is $83M ~ $98M
9. Then you need to think about a risk premium ... ie what is the risk that Heathgate will lose all or part of the 75% and what premium would you pay to eliminate that risk. IG thinks is extremely high; Heathgate low and prepred for a punch up. AGS might go broke in the time interval ... less likley if B4M producing. Let's say 20% probability that Heathgate will lose.
10. Simple maths - [low] 20% * 75% * $331M = $50M; [high] 20% * 75% * $393M = $59M
11. If I was having a wild backside guess then, a fair value offer for the 25% might be something between $133M ~ $157M for the resource only.

Looking forward to the criticism but please remember the complimentary ignore button at the top of this post.

I am not a valuer. I know that the above values are above my buy price. That's why I hold. Definitely DYOR as I am an un-ashamed lunatic!!!

Have a good one.