Just spent a little time going back through previous weekly reports. With the aim of comparing the Ray 5 with the Ray 6.
From the report of 26th April the Ray 5 was in the middle of the frac stimulation which was due to finish on 27th April.
The 2nd May report reports that bridge plugs have been drilled out and the flow back of fluids is occurring.
The 10th May report states that on only the second day of measureable oil & gas the well is flowing at 100 BOPD and 336MCFG or 178 boed.
The AGM presentation of 16th May which obviously needed to be completed at least the day before then, show's the Ray 5 well flowing at 280 BOPD and 575 MCFG or 414 boed.
The Ray 6 section of the 14th November report says that the bridge plugs were being drilled out.
There is no report after that until 6th December which states flow back of fluids is occurring.
The report of 11th December states that first oil and gas production has been noted and is building.
When you compare the information, take into account the fact that the Ray 6 is meant to have very high flow rate of fluids, the Cozart well is in roughly the same position, but had several hold-ups ie had to wait on the work-over rig finishing at Ray 6 first, then it required the installation of more batteries etc.
No further announcement on Ray 6 flow-rates
Now I could be wrong and I'm sure many here will be hoping that I am, - but the data says to me that Ray 6 is not in Ray 5's league.
As such Antares will fail to meet its committment to shareholders to end 2012 producing over 2,500 boepd on a BTU basis. A target I never expected them to miss.
They will no longer have quarter on quarter production growth.
They will fail to meet there 2011 committment to shareholders to achieve a shareprice of A$1, nevermind the commitment of having the shareprice above A$1.50 by 31st December 2012.
Yes Ray 5 started out amazingly, but if you actually looked at its recent production history you would see that production has dropped something like 75-80% in only 3 month's. Which is a very dramatic drop indeed.
When will the decline curve of the Ray 5 flatten out?
Again this data - has me wondering if there happened to be some large natural fractures near the wellbore that had filled with oil and gas over time, thus explaining the very high initial flow rates and that once drained, it became the cause of the very sharp drop in flow rates.
Let me be crystal clear - I'm not saying that's what's happened, I'm just putting it forward as a possibility as to the dramatic drop in production.
LOTM
Add to My Watchlist
What is My Watchlist?