There is a BIG issue here in terms of control of access to any rail network that comes out of this sale by FMG.
I have read that the existing railway has a capacity of 185 Mt and given that Fortescue's ultimate goal is 155 Mt it doesn't leave a lot left over. You can be sure that FMG will only sell on terms that give it first use of the railway, so there is the potential that FMG ends up using it's full capacity if it expands above 155 Mt. Of course, this may take some time to play out and in the meantime AGO can be getting it's ore out using the railway's spare capacity while it is available.
It still raises the issue of how AGO (and other juniors) can secure the rail access over the longer term. I would feel happier if Aurizon (QR National) was the purchaser as they would be more prepared to expand the rail network if required, as opposed to a passive infrastructure investor who may just want to collect the income from their investment. Let's hope that AGO can get a good deal out of all this.
AGO Price at posting:
$1.72 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
