reasons why, page-4

Hi dapper, thanks for your thoughts on the topic as I was just about to write about this also.

The SP is under pressure due to a number of factors, the main two are additional supply created by the Fortrend capital raising and reduced demand due to coal prices falling and are IMO currently bottoming out.

Previously when Mantle has capital raised it was done with a non-renounceable offer, there would be a sharp drop to the offer price, the shares would be allocated and distributed and the process would be painful but quick like pulling off a band-aid. The Fortrend option has meant that Fortrend has dribbled out supply when demand has not been particularly strong due to the coal price. Now that IK has raised enough money during this tough time for micro-caps Mantle is in a really good position to continue to develop their 3 large projects. I hope the long-termers have taken this opportunity to buy artificially discounted shares from the distorted supply/demand dynamic. A $15m MC for Mantle at this stage of development is ridiculously cheap and is going to look even more absurd as the various projects move as the next stage of development.

If you have a look at the charts of MNM and the coal price index, they closely match since Mantle’s BM tenement grant and Exergen MOU and subsequent JV.

MNM vs.DJUSCL

There are many signs that the coal price is currently bottoming with November seeing a noticeable rebound after months of falls. Here is another recent article expressing the same sentiment.

Coal Rebound Seen

"I personally think it is time to move my investment elsewhere as there are other coal plays that have far better potential (eg NRU) in the short to medium term."

I have researched the NRU project, if you think that this is a better option in the ST to MT you are mistaken. The NRU project needs 40km odd of rail to be built just like the LV. The project is not located near transport infrastructure unlike BM, the coal has a high ash level which will probably need a washing plant, the strip ratios are OK, but not as good as BMs average.

The current SP would indicate that is more of a buy than sell IMO, as typically one would like to buy low and sell high. I am also happy that my prediction a year ago that MNM would perform better than CCC was proven correct. All the best for the new year holders :)