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This is from the AFR.

CBA analyst bearish on OZ Minerals

Commonwealth Bank Andrew Knuckey has reviewed his numbers on OZ Minerals ahead of the miner’s fourth-quarter production report due in January and he doesn’t have a rosy view of what lies ahead.

OZ Minerals shares sank almost 10 per cent on Wednesday as speculation about an imminent production downgrade from the copper and gold miner spread through the market.

Knuckey says that, as foreshadowed in the third quarter report, waste material removal will remain the focus in the fourth quarter, and significantly higher waste movement will temper production toward the lower end of guidance.

This translates into calendar year 2013 copper production of 91,000 tonnes and a 12 per cent jump in C1 cash costs to $US1.34 per pound.

“The increased focus on waste material should reduce the amount of ore that is physically mined from the open pit. With 1.2 million tonnes of ore scheduled to be mined from the Ankata underground, a short fall of around 2.8 million tonnes exists to maintain the processing plants 10 million tonne per annum demonstrated capacity.”

Knuckey still thinks there’s a fair amount of unrealised value in OZ Minerals, but negative earnings momentum and near-term issues have prompted a downgrade from overweight to neutral with a price target of $10.01 per share.

By calendar year, net profit estimates have been slashed by 12.9 per cent in 2012 to $141.1 million, by 51.2 per cent in 2013 to $100.6 million and 6.2 per cent in 2014 to $209.6 million.

HT1