Here's my take on the reasons why the FKP share price is all over the place (and mainly trending down.)
Complexity in its business model (particularly the retirement division)
Lack of cash generated (there is never any free cash flow)
Poor return on equity
Complex, convoluted accounts
The equity and borrowings required to complete such large projects
A long pipeline of capital hungry projects that rack up capitalised costs as we wait to develop
The utilisation of complex and little understood terms like "underlying profit" and that classic BS term EBITDA!
Ordinary past management with their plans written in invisible ink on dunny paper
I'd reckon there would be very few analysts who truly know how to value FKP...hence no strong support from the institutional arena (outside the top 4 shareholders)
But, we all know how to value residential property..and we also know how to apply a yield to commercial property to determine a value.
I believe that if you painstakingly look at each asset in the FKP PORTFOLIO you will build up a pretty good picture of the sum of the parts..
From my perspective the NTA even when heavily discounted is well north of current SP...so Mr Lee, time to back up the talk.
It's time to demystify the business model
Simplify the accounts
Demonstrate the company can generate cash flow
Sell off the retirement division and get rid of debt
Sell off unnecessary assets
Close out the property trusts
If you intend to create a vanilla REIT using some of the choice Gasworks assets...do so in a separate vehicle.
By doing this you will substantially close the SP gap against NTA and that's what we all want.
Please, no more Peter Brown fairy tales!
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