descending triangle target 29.5c, page-47

JJ, did you forget the $225 + interest that we owe the Jap. Govt via Sojitz? Gotta start paying that back next year from memory.

LAMP would be lucky to fetch $200M as it's configured to Mt Weld and even if someone could feed it do they have a con at 44ppm Th & 6ppm U, or less? Good luck trying to get a higher radiation count in there, and 90% of con is well over Mt Weld levels. Hate to be writing the Real Estate blurb for that one, great neighbours, do a great two headed chicken dinner every now & then, lol.

The RE "industry" is in for one hell of a cull next year with the Chinese restructuring their entire business model and largely bringing it back under State control. They are shutting inefficient producers and mothballing capacity but most estimates suggest they will still have sufficient operations to meets 3x global demand, which incidentally has shrunk from a tiny 135ktpa to an even tinier 115ktpa while ROW has shrunk from a minuscule 35ktpa to an even minusculier (poetic license) 11/12ktpa.

Check out China's 75 -90% dominance of all key demand segments, excepting auto catalysts, page 10:
http://www.lynascorp.com/content/upload/files/Roskill_Presentation_14_Nov_2012__FINAL.pdf

Neither Lynas or any other ROW producer is going to be selling REO into China anytime soon so with Moly & Lynas fighting over nominal 12ktpa ROW demand it's so very easy to make an FA case for a 30c SP.

Anybody who's bothered to understand stuff I've posted will understand why I'm LT bullish on Lynas but we're going to be caught up in a mother of shake outs next year, probably starting with Moly's Q's mid Jan when new CEO Con K. reveals a much larger loss on $28kg realised price, mothballs Phase 2 and other radical surgery. He's nominally only caretaker CEO but with his reputation he's not going to play Patsy and continue to deliver up Mark Smith's "she'll be right mate, we've got HRE in the staff carpark" dross. Depends what the Board sanctions I guess.

Did anybody stop to think exactly why Lynas raised quite so much money in the last CR? I was initially rather horrified by the dilution, supposedly just to get us over the next 5/6 months to cashflow, but on reflection I think it's called insurance.

Next year is going to be a very tough one for RE "players" and Lynas is going to be totally caught up in the negative sentiment until production is proven, offtake agreements are proven - particularly in terms of volume and we get some indications of OpEx v realised price in the first half results. They won't be pretty as initial production is a mish mash and OpEx will include ALL the teething issues, but it will be a guide.

Lynas WILL be re-rated against whatever peers are left in 12 months or so but I'm thinking the SP could go about anywhere between now and then, despite the general upturn in Materials. Irrespective of some legitimate criticisms, I'm very happy to have NC in the driver's Chair for the next 12 months.

BTW Mitta, can I have another go at the Easter Bunny? After all you did nail me at the top of my range, lol.

PS. Pages 4 - 11 of the Roskill's presentation is an informative study, and a good starting point, for those that take the time to comprehend.