45c less 32.5c = 38.5%, page-22

Matt - I commend you for your continued campaigning! But the Hedge Funds would have already been canvassed at the 45 price point and deal done.

The issue is deal or no deal in many investors eyes. Not 45 or 48 or 50. It comes down to 45 or much lower. If the No vote got up then it would have to be through a serious concerted effort from the Hedge Funds and that would only be in play if there was a viable and predictable alternative. I also think that the majority of the head count would be in favour as simply, many have had enough and want out. I don't think that there is a great appetite for adding more uncertainty to a deal which in itself has bumps all over it.

The role of Hanlong and China and their interrelationships before, now and in the future is uncertain. I am confident HL wants the deal as they will make a motza. Does CDB and NDRC want this at any price? We don't know. Does a counterbidder want to pay over 45? We dont know.

All we do know is that it is a bumpy ride.

We need the permit and then we need the term sheet - go to the vote, get out money and invest happily thereafter.