Angor, the likelihood of counter I rate as HIGH now.
Back in Sept, the NDRC (hiding behind HanLong) wanted to renege on the SIA to low ball the 57 cents bid. It blatantly ignored the PRICE SENTITIVE ASX release of the 50% increase of high-grade ore which had a material impact on the value of the comapny.
The PRC pull off this act of betrayal because it saw IT COULD. Since the FIRB approval was already in hand, a Sundance MASSACRE would not result in anything detrimental to Communist China.
Sundance was treated with indiffernece like a bastard child - orphaned - having been lock in a CHINA-ONLY arrangement for 2 years - with no exposure to the outside world - no due-diligence possible and seemingly of utterly NO INTEREST to anybody.
At that point, Sundance shareholders were up for the meat grinder as MERRILL LYNCH worked the levers.
How much has changed now that there a "whiff" of competition tension in the air !
China through the Communist Part mouth-piece the People's Daily (GLobal Time) is URGING STATE ENTERPRISES to quickly work on the development of the Sundance resources.
CDB term sheet being pulled (this time to make allowance for any evetaualities in terms of the final takeover price).
IMO, China's priority is NO LONGER the price (MERRILL IS PANICKING). China's priority is to destroy any competition for Sundance (a strategic prize of immense value to China but which China has been trying to fool all of us that Sundance is just a worthless orphan - until the moment of reckoning).
SDL Price at posting:
32.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
