Matt, what if you are wrong? Do you have the stomach for sittimg on this for God knows how long? You sound way too certain in your view, especially when market action is going opposite to your theory.
In this game, IMO, you always need to be prepared to be wrong. The question is, if you are, what damage is that going to do.
If you are right, we might forgo 5 cents. If you are wrong, we could lose 19 cents. The market is telling us that the likely scenario is scepticism on 45 let alone getting more.
Why should posters buy your theory when the SP is going the other way?
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