timing and trading strategy, page-5

thanks guys, really appreciate all responses!

agreed, OEL is a great play and a buy and hold. i hadn't factored in $1+ for Cinco success or the followup well. (i really really like hawkeye and had forgotton about the 2nd well in the agreement!). i had been working on some pre-drill numbers of ~20cps and immediate Cinco success case of ~45cps. i think i got there by taking a third of the unrisked 600m upside (not accounting for the rest of sc55 portfolio). clearly a pretty dirty approach and way off your estimate. can you tell me why you are thinking $1 (i'd prefer for your estimate to be right haha)?

in fact, i also have a slightly different query which you guys may or may not be able to answer. i am currently long but plan to double that. i'm also looking to use my CFD account to hedge Cinco 1 outcome by taking out an equal short position with guaranteed stop (12.5%).

my thinking is: odds are the well will not be a success so might as well pick up some on the sharp fall and hold the reduced FPO value holding for a second well and longer term. but obviously if it hits, my short will get killed and erase my long gains. IG offer guaranteed stops for a premium and minimum spread is 12.5%. clearly 12.5% guaranteed stop is a great insurance if the well hits and price doubles against me! i just can't see them taking those odds on themselves. any comments/opinions??

cheers and good luck for this year!!