Just thinking...why not try to put these projects in some sort of order....in terms of likelyhood of sucess (not timeframe).....
I would go:
1/..Tassie Shoals...Evans Shoal/Caldita
2/...Permit 454...(Marina 1 drill success)
3/..Blackwood....ENI to proceed and success
4/...Ibu Horst
5/...Greater Sunrise
6/...Heron North