1 million ounces, easy peasy, page-79

What can be achieved from a small scale start up and organic growth?

Look at NST and SLR. During the GFC early years the sp's and mc's were very small.
SLR had a much smaller resource than it does now (smaller than ABU'S Old Pirate maiden resource if I remember correctly).
They started with a very small production and low cash flow (smaller than ours will be if we start at 200,000tpa) and grew organically to a mc of over $600mill.
In fact at 200,000tpa, in our first year we could potentially make the same profit as SLR made last year which was around $35mill and when it did so the mc was already reaching $600mill.
The sp went from 13c in Nov 2008 to $3.84 in 2012.
A rise of 29 times.
$50,000 invested would have grown to $1.4mill.
Plenty of manipulation in markets (mostly positive) and gold (mostly negative) along the way.
In the end, i.e. over the long term it’s the growing resource base, production base and growing cash flow that moved the sp to grind higher.
Plenty of roller coaster moves along the way (recently 3.84 to 2.02, back up to 3.90's and now 2.86) with short term manipulation/sentiment swings etc, but a strong growth in wealth regardless.
ABU could be compared to SLR in profits to 2012 but it can’t be compared to SLR yet for strong growth off SLR’s 2012 earnings and their reserves/resources post merger. Post merger mc is over 1 bill now and I think its worth nearly double that as it approaches 2014 production.
However if OP grows to 1.5 to 2 mill oz over the next 2-4 years with higher grades than SLR's and a large proportion of those higher grades in open pit, then we can easily start comparing to SLR pre merger at a $600 mill mc and growing.

ABU in just 12 months has defined a great resource, already shown it to be highly viable just on the maiden jorc with no need to increase the resource to make it viable (and that’s rare).
In the same 12 month period they have had strong exploration success; we will likely see a strong resource upgrade, and probably a strong increase in scoping study numbers as a result.
Also before the 12 months are up we should see a trial mine either running or very close to start up.
The project has been shown to have very low capex and opex, and with a healthy bank balance and low capex it will be easily funded.
Very rare to see this much progress on any project in that time frame.
I see no reason why we wouldn’t have full permitting and be in production within 18 months of announcing that jorc resource, i.e. before the end of this year.
This company is making excellent progress and that will be reflected in the sp despite POG, markets or the sector.
SLR grew in sp by a factor of 29 while NCM only grew in price by 20% over the same 4 years.
It’s only a matter of time for ABU’s sp to do what it will do.
What price it achieves will depend on how many more ounces are discovered, what margins are achieved, production growth, mine life growth, what other deposits are discovered, etc.
The POG should be much higher than it is now IMO, but it doesn’t need to rise for ABU’s sp to rise strongly. If I am correct re gold, the gains will simply be magnified.
Moving to developer and organic growth will take care of the sp with or without a higher POG.
Where will ABU be in 4 years after what they have achieved in 12 months?