balance

I feel that there is currently not enough balance on the acl threads. ok, a small cap raising may occur - but that is not a given. There are also posts suggesting that HyACT is suddenly a "burden" or problem.

As for management keeping quiet, well at the moment that is probably very prudent. Because at the moment we have a number of unknowns. Fonda revenue (following production improvements). sclc phase 2 trial data. Our phase 3 trial data. The ipo chances of success in the US (currently increasing sentiment).

HyACT is not a burden. HyACT is possibly the goose that lays the golden eggs. Phase 3 success will be worth heaps ($200m a year profit suggested). In the sclc trial patients don't have enough cancer growth to be measured. Stunning results to date, and almost definite proof of cancer stem cell killing action.

$20m as been mentioned as the cost to finish the phase 3 trial and to register the drug. But the trial costs would now have peeked and will be coming down. We should have enough funds, even if we don't raise anything. Here are the guestimates:


In the last quarterly we had:
costs: $5.4m
cash: $8.6m


The next quarterly (due in weeks) will probably be about:
costs: $5.5m
income (fonda) : $1.5m
income (R&D tax incentive): $3m
cash: $7.6m


The next quarterly of perhaps:
costs: $4m
income: $2.5m
cash: $6.1m

(maybe more, depending on the "sustantial" sales increase thingy)

After that trial costs will come down. We also have (probably) a further $6m to offset against trial and registration costs.

Remember too that acl are great at belt tightening. They did it well before.

cheers



definate