Dear manxman,
From a simply view I guess two things must happen to get to the GS predicted price level. Either demand for the I/O must fall or supply must increase, driving down the price.
Mr. Ken Brinsden, MD of Atlas Ltd. in a presentation that was posted on HC by GlenStewart20 on 27 Dec. 2012 (Post: 8920735) at a Sydney Mining Club commented on the disparity of Chinese I/O costs, see slide 12 at
http://www.sydneyminingclub.org/presentations/2012/december/atlas/index.htm
Mr. Brinsden uses the chart you have included in your post and talks to it. The whole presentation is well worth a listen.
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