sentiment, page-15

I can see past 31/01 and I don't like what I see. I suggest you look into the detail of the Texas Railroad commission monthly production data and look at the lease by lease production rates - IMO these wells are barely economic. Pay particular attention to the Nash Dome production - despite drilling numerous fairway wells on the Dome with 10's of millions of Proved reserves the production rate on that Dome as at October had fallen to zero (from one sixth of a barrel a day in July and one third of a barrel a day in September). Not sure how flow rate like that justify such high reserve numbers. By definition absent a very good explanation those Proved wells were uneconomic and a massive reserves revision is due.
Peter Strachan's tip on MAD is premised on the 100mm bbl Proved reserve number which I believe requires significant downward revision across all 3 domes. ptolemic thinks the proved reserves should be in the order of 9mmbbls - does that make the stock look cheap at these levels?
I used to be a subscriber to Strachan's newsletter but cancelled as it wasn't very useful. His model portfolio was usually net down, and that was in the pre-GFC bull market when oil was soaring! People should be very careful relying heavily on broker / tipster reports - remover the Rivkin Report?