p & d, page-107

@Glenn_Archer

I don't know how many other stocks you might check out, I check out a few. And it's interesting to compare and contrast the impressions of management from different people on different forums.

The stocks which boast the biggest HC "fans" are not only the ones where the share price has gone kaboom, it's where communications are good, and timelines are clear. When management changes direction they are (a) very clear and honest on having done so and (b) take great pains to explain the situation.

There's an old Buffett cliche about investing in companies that are so good that they survive even appalling management. I wouldn't put AVB quite in that camp, but I would suggest that it's the main reason people stay invested even though management irritates them: the potential of cashing in on a big stash of copper balances the risks.

I think Newland's comment that risk in investment shouldn't have to apply to management is deeply important. At the moment I'm in AVB despite management not because of it.

So here are the facts as I see them, taking a slightly negative toneas is usual for me.

a) The trend has been mildly upwards since the lows in the 7's, and volumes have been OK but the trend is weakening a bit.

b) While we have no real news on Vale we do know we are in "exceptional circumstances": the last option was not paid which means Vale either wants out or there is a chance of something solid in the offing. If Vale dumps its option AVB will have to announce it.

c) While the Cu resource has built up, it has been a long time (Oct 11) since what I would call a really good drill result, where the grade is greater than 1% and grade x length is greater than 100 (eg the Oct 11 ann had 35 odd metres at 3% or so) Drill results at AN have been satisfactory, but I find PB OK but underwhelming in comparison. The last PB ann had great length (132m or whatever it was) but slightly suboptimal grades. The market was clearly hoping for another couple of drill results with great lengths. It didn't get them.

d) The excitement of the Oct 11 results (let alone the Oct 10 results) has well faded away, not least because at this stage it doesn't look as though those results are going to factor into any mining operation.

e) AVB reneged on its initial mining plan. They never explained why. Announcing plans and quietly tiptoeing away from them is not a good look.

f) AVB does not have a million tonnes of copper and cannot be referred to as a "million tonne copper company".

g) AVB have a history of delays (trial mining plan for example) that have gone unexplained. And they're not very good at listing what they're going to drill, when , and when the results would be due. There are companies where each announcement will give the expectd timeline to the next one. So that investors aren't left in the dark about what's happening. I suspect that AVB are making it up as they're going along. So while many of you are happy to canonise TP, I'm reserving judgement.