old website on web, page-2

base rev 05/06 forecast should be $9.2m not $8m Great work sydneysider.

Interesting to note that they forecast revenues of $8 mil alone from their hazardous waste division in 2002. This obviously was not met.

Obviously back then they were talking up the possible growth potential of the business but are now have adopted a rather conservative approach to their profit forecast with $8 mil revenue projected for the 05/06 year across all their divisions given that the company experiences no growth whatsoever.

Profits for the first half this year was double what they expected. Much rather this approach from management as obviously theyve realised that previous management have made such significant errors with managing the business in previous years and any talk of significant profits being experienced in the short term is downplayed.

I have also just noted another example of management downplaying profit forecast for 2005/06.

Revenue is projected to be $8 mil for 05/06.

However if one looks at revenue inflows for the first half of this year, a total of $4.4 m was received (Obtained from the March and June quarterly reports this year). If you take out the GST, revenues would be $4 mil for the first half of this year.

However it should be noted that:

Debtors as at 31 Dec 2004: $830k

Debtors as at 30 June 2005: $1.43m

Therefore you would need to add back the increase in debtors between 31 Dec 2004 and 30 June 2005 to calculate the additional increase in revenue for the period.

Therefore revenues for the first six months of the year would be:

$4.4 m - $400k GST + $600k (increase in debtors) = $4.6 million.

Therefore even if the company experiences no growth in 05/06, sales woud be a base figure of approx $9.2m.

Revenue forecast has therefore been understated by approx $1.2m for 2005/06.

This is further reason, in addition to my previous posts that the base EBITDA figure of $3m for 05/06 has been understated significantly.

Remember that a base figure of $9.2m assumes NO growth at all.

Plenty of exciting times ahead for TOX holders.

Comments most welcome?

Cheers