Hi Crazy trippers Been a while because I have not had much to say! Gotta say it took me a while to warm to the ZL being dominated by music vids but now I find it compulsory listening/watching. The selection proves to me how many here must be as “young” as me. Great memories of youth every weekend and I bore the kids with many “You have to listen to this one ….” LOL
Well done to all but particularly Disco Stu.
I still reserve most of my TU's tho' for charts and I hope this post still fits here. I think everyone should be grateful for Reds and Barnstys great work in particular? I am not sure why there is not more TA in the ZL?
So a new year and a new stock market rally? Who would have guessed with: -Unrest in Middle East continuing -Europe apparently a basket case & the future of the -Eurozone under question -USA nearly falling over the so called Fiscal Cliff but escaping by delaying little issues like balancing a budget (or even being able to pass one LOL), Debt Ceiling ($16.5T and counting; see here http://www.usdebtclock.org/ ), very ugly Unemployment numbers and a political system that seems all but dysfunctional (Republicans make John Howard look like a commo IMO!)
-China slowdown -Korea shenanigans -Lets not mention whats happening to the climate & what might be causing it … having an as yet unimagined consequence? -Others?
But it seems what happens when Federal Reserves around the world throw previously unimagined money at economies we get share market moves … Last year US started by throwing an unlimited $80B / month (referred to as “Infinity QE-4,”) …. combined with almost zero interest rates …. weakens the $US …. Japanese response ... Its economy contracted at an annualized -3.5% rate in the third quarter last year, So its reported that they are, “preparing to detonate “Big-Bang” QE as early as January 22nd, and flood the world money markets with $1.2-trillion worth of Japanese yen.” Seems all talk at this stage but the markets are listening. And of course “The European Central Bank has used 12-month and 36-month long term refinancing operations (LTRO) (forms of quantitative easing without referring to them as such)” (Want to read more try here http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article38159.html & http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing )
So here is a view of BBB (Big Bad Ben) at work. Not a bad job hey? i wonder if he slips a few in the back pocket on the way out?
Interesting observation amongst my SMSF friends with lots in cash; a definite move to a sentiment of “time to get back into shares” for divvies as cash rates so low. IMO either:
1. Fuel for new highs (XJO >5000) or 2. Fodder for SM to sell into?
Not many were buying with XJO < 4000 (as usual). Any thoughts? I remember 18 months ago when the discussion was all about how lucky we were with TD > 6%. Now we join USA and much of Europe who have had VERY low rates for several years ... and Japan for longer ... are low rates a sustainable reason for markets being so high?? What happens when (not if) they spike??
So I did a cruise of world markets to see what I could find. One of the most amazing stats is how close we are in so many markets from significant highs …. Here are some markets with %age gain and points required to make ATH (all time high) achieved pre GFC:
And of course the Ozzie market has not got back to those dizzy heights' its some 1900 points (28%) from ATH. It is however within 100 points of some very serious levels! How will the markets behave when / if they reach these levels? One would have to expect significant resistance IMO …... maybe Ben will find another few Trillion tho' to smash these targets? LOL
So here are a few screen shots of what I found of interest:
ASX200 daily since GFC
ASX200 weekly since GFC; highlighting 3 res levels ahead (add to that the 5000 level itself … check 4000 below!!)
DOW daily since GFC
DOW weekly since GFC with QE impacts
One very long term view of the DOW (that applies to all markets?)
FTSE monthly since GFC
NASDAQ since GFC low (With AAPL probs I am surprised it has not come off more; FWIW listened to fascinating podcast other day presenting a view that AAPL had perfected the art of selling westerners “luxury items” that they did not really need (IPAD most obvious example). Point being that their next 1 billion customers (China and Asia) will NOT have the disposable income to sell with same theory. Further how many gadgets does the average westerner really need before they do NOT buy next gadget?
What about a 50% rally on Spanish market?
Anyone for currency wars? USDJPY
& another view
Thats probs enough for me; as always welcome any comments or feedback. Cheers g
(20min delay)