a small correction. The Bolney 25% direct interest is a separate asset to the 25% direct interest in Bowland. It won't be a part of any sale of Bowland.
As you say the market still knows little about the Bowland project and who actually owns it. I read almost on a daily basis that AJL owns 42% of Bowland. Its comical!
The market is looking at AJL as a operating business not as a oil & gas explorer. On any standard financial analysis it is a "sell as fast as you can" proposition. But it has Cuadrilla and in particular Bowland. Huge world class asset in the middle of one of the highest priced gas markets with existing gas pipelines in place. In the last week or so further info has filtered through that the deposit is gas saturated, contains practically ZERO water and is geologically highly suited to generate complex fractures. On a risk reward basis I'm not seeing anything better! All of the EXPERTS are drooling over it. And WE own 57% of it!!!
What about the debt? My read of things says that excluding ANZ, and assuming that the operating businesses make NO free cash that AJL will need somewhere between $40M & $50M this year to pay the $19M payment to Kerogen in March & the balance to fund Cuadrilla. Given that big oil throw cash at drilling / investigating unknown prospects on a daily basis for a measly $40 to $50M they could pick up 10% to 15% of AJL and get exposure to Bowland plus everything else Cuadrilla offers. Surely that odds are in our favour that that deal is doable!
And as you say we could see ALL of the debt disappear + have working capital in the blink of an eye. The more I hear that the experts are amazed the more confident I am that we will see a solution to the debt issue sooner than everyone thinks or expects.
AJL Price at posting:
$1.55 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
