re: Ann: Acquisition of Key Tenement Adjacent... Mongolia is an interesting case, how they play Geopolitics between Russia and China. Some Mongolian coking coal could well be exported through Russian ports on the east coast to keep the Chinese honest. But the cost including Russian port and rail will be high. I can not see it putting the BMA FOB under supply or cost pressure.
Anyway, most Japanese and Korean coke ovens need a good % of low Alkali Bowen Basin HCC to get the coke blend right. That is why the long term HCC price will always be an acceptable margin above the BMA FOB cost. BMA is not going to give it away.
2013 will most likely be sub USD185, while 2014 will be a pivotal year with WICET start up threatening.
Keep your eye on the AUD and the reemergence of panic resource buying from China and India when the AUD starts trending down. Then it will be a game of chicken to see who can get CLR as late as possible in the downward AUD cycle.
CLR should ultimately sell for well in excess of $1.50 per share (only A$230M) Chris should be happy with his 50c option. A$230m is not out of the question for Chris either. Qcoal does need to be a bigger business, and CLR could be a good back door listing strategy.
Ann: Acquisition of Key Tenement Adjacent to Bluf, page-10
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