the $1m vale payment, page-32

The $1m matters because then we'd now where we stood.

There are four things that could have happened last August:

1) vale stumps up 10-40m for TN

Outcome: possibly some shareholder whingeing about the price but we would have enough money in the bank to continue operations without a CR for a while (though maybe not enough to build a mine). Some measuree of certainty about the future.

2) vale stumps up 1m

Outcome: some measure of confidence that Vale were still interested in full acquisition (though maybe playing a delaying game because the iron ore price was lousy at the time). Not as good as (1) but still OK

3) vale walks.

Outcome: probably serious SP hammering. Board would have had to explain what the plan was without the Vale money. Or not. Worst case outcome obviously.

4) Vale doesn't pay and no one has a clue what's going on.

Seriously did ANYONE predict this happening last year? Of course not, and that's no-one's fault. The idea that Vale would do something other than 1,2 or 3 above was inconceivable.

So the $1m matters because it would be some sort of certainty. And the non payment matters because none of us saw it coming, and with a spec stock, when something happens that you didn't see coming THAT'S A BAD SIGN.

Now the point has been made that there's a bunch of options due very soon at a very high price. And that's a good point, after all if you're going to back anything, self interest is a good thing to back. So, who knows, there could be fantastic news around the corner.

But we just don't know.