insider trader-stock pick of the week - 06feb, page-40

This is hilarious. Nihilism you should probably focus on skinning cats rather than horses....
You misunderstand the definition of proved reserve entirely. You believe the reserves numbers then say they should do a bunch of exploration work on separate targets to the proved reserve locations to increase the drilling success rate from 60 or 70 percent to 90 percent. What nonsense - they are mutually exclusive targets in different locations! A proved reserve is by definition commercial with a 90 percent confidence interval so surely you maximise NPV by drilling that which you already supposedly know to be economic (and therefore by definition already know to be economically viable?)
I never believed the broker reports which is why I went short while everyone else piled in at the top. I was trying to point out that those reports generated the target prices (based on that supposedly dubious NPV methodology which you have dismissed) well over a dollar which investors bought into. You clearly misunderstood my point about broker reports entirely.
I have no idea what you are on about when you talk about short vs long term NPV. NPV is all future cash flows discounted into present dollars so its irrelevant whether they are long or short term. But I would point out that the last proved barrel of reserves, if produced in 499.999 years, will have a very low NPV indeed.
I suggest that you read the reserve report in the prospectus before trying to shut me down about it's contents.
Regarding the uneconomic wells, if you had read the RRC reporting then you'd know which wells have been drilled on which leases to which depth and you'd know whether they're on the 'fairways' rather than the exploratory targets.
Can you please explain the relevance of them being 'one year into developer status' and having no debt? They have no debt because they've raised 8 times as much equity as they said they would need in the prospectus. I'm not sure I'd consider massive dilution to be often sign of success in an emerging oil production company unless equity dilution is as irrelevant as NPV.
Please reply again, I'm really enjoying this.
I must point out that I'm bitterly disappointed that I lost the Snagger1964 popularity contest. What a shame. His insightful comment really checkmated me. Ouch!